BDI Blog mentions for July 7, 2010 showing 12 entries
By Coracle Voice link finder • Jul 7th, 2010 • Category: BDI
BDI Blog mentions for July 7, 2010 showing 12 entries
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Baltic Dry Index Shipping Rates 7/6/10 BDI
daytradingstockblog.blogspot.com —
The BDI data is critical for how the DryBulk Shipping Stocks such as DryShips Inc ( DRYS ), Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (EXM), Diana Shipping Inc ( DSX ), Genco Shipping & Trading Limited ( GNK
The BDI data is critical for how the DryBulk Shipping Stocks such as DryShips Inc ( DRYS ), Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (EXM), Diana Shipping Inc ( DSX ), Genco Shipping & Trading Limited ( GNK ), TBS International Limited ( TBSI ), Navios Maritime ( NM ), Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. ( EGLE ), Paragon Shipping Inc. ( PRGN ), Star Bulk Carriers Corp. ( SBLK ), and OceanFreight Inc ( OCNF ) will trade during the day. As you probably know, the Dry Bulk Shipping index can tell you a lot about the state of the World Economy. When Bulk Shipping Rates are at all time highs, the World Economy is outstanding. When Bulk Shipping Rates are as low as they have been lately, it signifies that the world trade has come to a screeching halthttp://www.dowjonesclose.com/bdi.html
Discuss Stocks – http://stockstobuy.org/
Dry Bulk Shipping Rates – July 6, 2010
Baltic Dry Index ( BDI ) – 2127 Down 89
Baltic Cape Index ( BCI ) - 2468 Down 110
Baltic Panamax Index ( BPI ) – 2191 Down 159
Supramax Index ( BSI ) – 1923 Down 34
Discuss the Baltic Dry Index – Click Here
For More Stock Market Updates, visit , http://daytradingstockblog.blogspot.com/
Published: July 06, 2010
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Baltic Dirty Tanker Index And Baltic Dry Index Plunging.. What Does It Mean?
whereiszemoola.blogspot.com —
The Baltic Dry Index has closed at 2127, down another 4%!. . … Now the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) has not been faring well too. … And here is the comparison of the BDI versus BDTI on a YTD comparison.. .
The Baltic Dry Index has closed at 2127, down another 4%!
Remember it was just 4209 points on 26 May 2010. The Index is now down 2082 points or some 49.4%!!!Now the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) has not been faring well too. The BDTI measures the oil tankers rates or the shipping costs on 17 crude oil tanker routes have not been doing that well too.
And again reports are saying that there are more very large supertankers (VLCC) for hire than there are for the demand to ship crude oil!Here’s a clip last month.
- There are 5 percent more very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, for hire in the Persian Gulf over the next 30 days than there are cargoes that need shipping, according to the median estimate of three shipbrokers, one freight-derivatives broker and one owner surveyed by Bloomberg News today. (source: here )
And here is how the BDTI is faring the last 3 months.
And here is the comparison of the BDI versus BDTI on a YTD comparison.
Not looking great eh?
So is this an issue of over supply of ships? Or is this an issue of falling demand? Or a combination of both?
But the issue of over supply of ships is incredible, really.
For example: Samsung Heavy wins $1.7 billion shipbuilding deals
- Samsung Heavy wins $1.7 billion shipbuilding deals
(AFP) – 4 days agoSEOUL — South Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries Co. said Friday it had won deals worth 1.7 billion dollars to build 19 vessels, as global demand for new ships recovers.
The country’s second largest shipbuilder after Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. won a 1.03 billion dollar order from Taiwan’s Evergreen Marine Corp., under which Samsung Heavy will build and deliver 10 container ships by November 2013.
Samsung Heavy has also clinched another 670 million deal from two unidentified Asian shipping firms to build nine oil tankers.
The two deals, signed on Friday, brought the total orders placed with Samsung Heavy to 51 ships valued at five billion dollars, accounting for 63 percent of the company’s yearly target for orders.
In contrast, the company received just one order worth 700 million dollars during the same period last year.
South Korea overtook China to regain its status as the world’s top shipbuilder in the first four months of this year thanks to a rise in demand from European shipping lines, the government said on Tuesday…..
And on the latest Korean Shipping messenger newsletter dated 6th July…
http://files.irwebpage.com/reports/shipping/V7ZeHnn7IC/SM-06-07-2010.pdf
And on page 3 of the report…
- …. But let’s put it in perspective. This is nothing compared to the 95% drop the index saw before and during the financial crisis of 2008.
And by and large, analysts are saying that we don’t need to get too worried about this sell off either. Why not?
The BDI measures the cost of shipping raw materials from one place to another. If the price of moving raw materials falls, then you’d assume that people are moving less stuff around the world. Presumably, that’s because demand for finished goods is also slowing down. Therefore, a drop in the BDI suggests that the global economy must be slowing down.
That’s all very logical. But it misses one point – the supply side. Because it measures the cost of shipping, the BDI might also be saying that there are simply too many ships. The BDI hit a record high in 2008, as demand for shipping rose far ahead of the supply of ships available.So, as you’d expect, that meant that more ships were built. And fleets are still growing now, even although demand has fallen to more normal levels. More ships and static demand means shipping rates are falling.
As dry bulk researcher Derek Langston of Simpson Spence and Young told the Financial Times last month: “We still anticipate this year we will see a record year in terms of annual growth of trade. However, this is also accompanied by record growth in fleet supply.”
So everything’s just fine then? Well, we wouldn’t go that far. Melissa Kidd at Lombard Street Research is rather less sanguine about the fall in the index. Sure, “the quality of the BDI as a leading indicator has been disrupted by an oversupply of shipping.” But “the message of weaker global activity is supported by a range of other indicators.”Chinese growth is slowing
One big factor in the fall has been a drop off in Chinese steel mill demand for iron ore. Iron ore shipments fell year-on-year in both April and May, according to Bloomberg. Iron ore is of course, a key ingredient in steel manufacturing.
But domestic steel prices in China have been falling for the past ten weeks. This is partly down to tighter monetary conditions. The construction industry is the major driver of steel demand. China’s attempts to curb the property market have hit steel consumption and therefore prices.With iron ore prices remaining high, that’s pushed steel makers into losses. As Andreas Vergottis at Tufton Oceanic tells Bloomberg, “Profitability of Chinese steel mills is zero now, we think.”
The trouble, says Kidd, is that “China has been the world’s engine of growth for… commodities over the last 12-18 months. A cooling off in Chinese demand growth – prompted by ongoing monetary tightening – will impact heavily on global price developments” in the commodities market.
And China’s not the only one slowing down. “The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI has fallen from a high of 60.9 in April to 57.0 in June.” The reading for new orders was particularly hard hit, falling from 60.3 to 55.5 over the same time. “While a PMI of over 50 points to economic expansion rather than contraction, the drop in the index components points to a slowing down in the pace of recovery.”A turning point for the global recovery
What all this boils down to, says Kidd, is that “the global recovery has reached a turning point as the momentum provided by the inventory cycle wears off.” In other words, company restocking is now ending, and we’re waiting to see what sort of ‘real’ demand remains to pick up the slack once government stimulus is removed.
Just how bad things get remains to be seen. But even a slowing of demand doesn’t bode well for hard commodity prices in the second half of the year
Published: July 07, 2010
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Baltic Dry Index Continues Its Dizzying Plunge
www.reallibertymedia.com —
. The Baltic Dry Index (the key measure of shipping day-rates) is down for the 28th straight day, as Edward Harrison of Credit Writedown notes.. . … It’s easy to cite the former, but the BDI isn’t
The Baltic Dry Index (the key measure of shipping day-rates) is down for the 28th straight day, as Edward Harrison of Credit Writedown notes.
The question is: is this a sign of a massive slowing on the horizon, or is this the natural expected effect of a massive move on the part of shippers to bring new boats onto line, which necessarily has a depressing effect on prices.
It’s easy to cite the former, but the BDI isn’t just a simple economic indicator, and it’s always represented, just as much, the speed at which shippers are bringing on new boats. Don’t read too much into this yer.
Published: July 06, 2010
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Baltic Dry Index Continues Its Dizzying Plunge
businessinsider.com —
. The Baltic Dry Index (the key measure of shipping day-rates) is down for the 28th straight day, as Edward Harrison of Credit Writedown notes.. . … It’s easy to cite the former, but the BDI isn’t
The Baltic Dry Index (the key measure of shipping day-rates) is down for the 28th straight day, as Edward Harrison of Credit Writedown notes.
The question is: is this a sign of a massive slowing on the horizon, or is this the natural expected effect of a massive move on the part of shippers to bring new boats onto line, which necessarily has a depressing effect on prices.
It’s easy to cite the former, but the BDI isn’t just a simple economic indicator, and it’s always represented, just as much, the speed at which shippers are bringing on new boats. Don’t read too much into this yer.
Join the conversation about this story »
Published: July 06, 2010
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Baltic Dry Index Continues Its Dizzying Plunge
www.neurosoftware.ro —
. The Baltic Dry Index (the key measure of shipping day-rates) is down for the 28th straight day, as Edward Harrison of Credit Writedown notes.. . … It’s easy to cite the former, but the BDI isn’t
The Baltic Dry Index (the key measure of shipping day-rates) is down for the 28th straight day, as Edward Harrison of Credit Writedown notes.
The question is: is this a sign of a massive slowing on the horizon, or is this the natural expected effect of a massive move on the part of shippers to bring new boats onto line, which necessarily has a depressing effect on prices.
It’s easy to cite the former, but the BDI isn’t just a simple economic indicator, and it’s always represented, just as much, the speed at which shippers are bringing on new boats. Don’t read too much into this yer.
Join the conversation about this story »
Published: July 06, 2010
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Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 06/07/2010
hi.baidu.com —
. Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 06/07/2010. . … BDI 2127 (DOWN 89) BCI 2468 (DOWN 110) BPI 2191 (DOWN 159). … ‘Samjohn Amity’ Transbulk relet 1998 74744 dwt dely … 类别：Baltic Dry Index 查看评论
Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 06/07/2010
BDI 2127 (DOWN 89) BCI 2468 (DOWN 110) BPI 2191 (DOWN 159)
BSI 1923 (DOWN 34) BHSI 1042 (DOWN 27)
Last published BDTI 824 (DOWN 7) BCTI 818 (UP 9)
TIMECHARTER‘Epic’ newbuilding 182000 dwt dely ex yard Odense 19/21 July trip via Narvik & Iskenderun redel Cape Passero $29000 daily – Classic
‘Ocean Duke’ 2010 180300 dwt dely ARA rge 10/20 July trip via Seven Islands redel Rotterdam $25000 daily – North China Shipping
‘Hong Jing’ 2008 82354 dwt dely aps Itaquai 4/6 July 2 laden legs redel UKC $18000 daily + $400000 bb – Windrose
‘Lake Dahlia’ 2009 78000 dwt dely Gangavaram 15/20 July trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan rge $21000 daily – Cargill
‘Tai Prosperity’ 2005 77834 dwt dely Masinloc 10/12 July trip via Indonesia redel Hong Kong $14000 daily – Oldendorff
‘Iris II’ 2004 75798 dwt -
‘Ellivita’ Louis Dreyfus relet 1999 75522 dwt dely Hirohata 11/15 July trip via NoPac redel China int sulphur $20500 daily – cnr -
‘Samjohn Amity’ Transbulk relet 1998 74744 dwt dely Ijmuiden 10/14 July 1/2 laden legs 1st via Baltic redel Skaw-Cape Passero $14750 daily – Swiss Marine
‘Seafortune’ 1996 74012 dwt dely Xiamen spot trip via Indonesia redel China $18000 daily – cnr
‘Thetis’ Bunge relet 1993 73670 dwt dely Surabaya ppt trip via West Australia redel China $21000 daily – Cosco Qingdao
‘Essex Strait’ 2010 57000 dwt dely CJK spot trip via Nopac redel Indian Ocean approx $21000 daily – cnr
‘Jin Xing’ 2007 55300 dwt dely Indonesia spot trip redel N.China intention Nickel ore approx $26000 daily – cnr
‘White Diamond’ 2008 53538 dwt dely Londonderry mid July trip via Baltic and Gulf of Aden redel India $25000 daily – WBC
‘Nantor’ 2009 53400 dwt dely Jintang spot trip via South east Asia redel Singapore-Japan $17500 daily – cnr
‘Karavados’ 2002 50992 dwt dely Surabaya 17/20 July trip via Indonesia redel India approx $23500 daily – Oldendorff
‘Sanko Royal’ 1995 42529 dwt dely Onsan 10/12 June trip via Cape of Good Hope redel UKCont intention Steel & Generals $13200 daily – STX Pan Ocean
‘Van Orchid’ 2009 28341 dwt dely Black Sea spot trip redel South-East Africa $14000 daily – MUR
PERIOD
‘Oceanis’ 2001 75211 dwt dely Far East early Sept 23/25 months trading redel worldwide $19750 daily – Sinochart
‘Naias’ 2006 73664 dwt dely Far East in d/c 24/30 Sept 23/25 months trading redel worldwide $19750 daily – J.Aron
‘Attractive’ 1985 41524 dwt dely S.Korea 8/11 July 3/5 months trading redel worldwide $17000 daily – Phoenix
ORE
‘TBN’ 160000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 21/31 July $7.70 fio scale/30000sc – Rio Tinto
‘Grand Clipper’ 1996 160000/10 Tubarao/Qingdao 14/19 July $19.50 scale/30000sc – Louis Dreyfus
‘TBN’ 160000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 21/31 July $7.70 fio scale/30000sc – Rio Tinto
‘King Sail’ Bunge relet 2002 150000/10 Itaquai/Tianjin 25 July/3 Aug $23.00 fio scale/30000sc – ABT -
‘TBN’ 63000/10 Mo-I-Rana/Rotterdam 5/20 July $5.95 fio 4 days sc – Rogesa
Published: July 06, 2010
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Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 06/07/2010
goldenglory.blog.163.com —
. Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 06/07/2010. . … BDI 2127 (DOWN 89) BCI 2468 (DOWN 110) BPI 2191 (DOWN 159). … ‘Samjohn Amity’ Transbulk relet 1998 74744 dwt dely Ijmuiden 10/14 July 1/2
Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 06/07/2010
BDI 2127 (DOWN 89) BCI 2468 (DOWN 110) BPI 2191 (DOWN 159)
BSI 1923 (DOWN 34) BHSI 1042 (DOWN 27)
Last published BDTI 824 (DOWN 7) BCTI 818 (UP 9)
TIMECHARTER‘Epic’ newbuilding 182000 dwt dely ex yard Odense 19/21 July trip via Narvik & Iskenderun redel Cape Passero $29000 daily – Classic
‘Ocean Duke’ 2010 180300 dwt dely ARA rge 10/20 July trip via Seven Islands redel Rotterdam $25000 daily – North China Shipping
‘Hong Jing’ 2008 82354 dwt dely aps Itaquai 4/6 July 2 laden legs redel UKC $18000 daily + $400000 bb – Windrose
‘Lake Dahlia’ 2009 78000 dwt dely Gangavaram 15/20 July trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan rge $21000 daily – Cargill
‘Tai Prosperity’ 2005 77834 dwt dely Masinloc 10/12 July trip via Indonesia redel Hong Kong $14000 daily – Oldendorff
‘Iris II’ 2004 75798 dwt -
‘Ellivita’ Louis Dreyfus relet 1999 75522 dwt dely Hirohata 11/15 July trip via NoPac redel China int sulphur $20500 daily – cnr -
‘Samjohn Amity’ Transbulk relet 1998 74744 dwt dely Ijmuiden 10/14 July 1/2 laden legs 1st via Baltic redel Skaw-Cape Passero $14750 daily – Swiss Marine
‘Seafortune’ 1996 74012 dwt dely Xiamen spot trip via Indonesia redel China $18000 daily – cnr
‘Thetis’ Bunge relet 1993 73670 dwt dely Surabaya ppt trip via West Australia redel China $21000 daily – Cosco Qingdao
‘Essex Strait’ 2010 57000 dwt dely CJK spot trip via Nopac redel Indian Ocean approx $21000 daily – cnr
‘Jin Xing’ 2007 55300 dwt dely Indonesia spot trip redel N.China intention Nickel ore approx $26000 daily – cnr
‘White Diamond’ 2008 53538 dwt dely Londonderry mid July trip via Baltic and Gulf of Aden redel India $25000 daily – WBC
‘Nantor’ 2009 53400 dwt dely Jintang spot trip via South east Asia redel Singapore-Japan $17500 daily – cnr
‘Karavados’ 2002 50992 dwt dely Surabaya 17/20 July trip via Indonesia redel India approx $23500 daily – Oldendorff
‘Sanko Royal’ 1995 42529 dwt dely Onsan 10/12 June trip via Cape of Good Hope redel UKCont intention Steel & Generals $13200 daily – STX Pan Ocean
‘Van Orchid’ 2009 28341 dwt dely Black Sea spot trip redel South-East Africa $14000 daily – MURPERIOD
‘Oceanis’ 2001 75211 dwt dely Far East early Sept 23/25 months trading redel worldwide $19750 daily – Sinochart
‘Naias’ 2006 73664 dwt dely Far East in d/c 24/30 Sept 23/25 months trading redel worldwide $19750 daily – J.Aron
‘Attractive’ 1985 41524 dwt dely S.Korea 8/11 July 3/5 months trading redel worldwide $17000 daily – PhoenixORE
‘TBN’ 160000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 21/31 July $7.70 fio scale/30000sc – Rio Tinto
‘Grand Clipper’ 1996 160000/10 Tubarao/Qingdao 14/19 July $19.50 scale/30000sc – Louis Dreyfus
‘TBN’ 160000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 21/31 July $7.70 fio scale/30000sc – Rio Tinto
‘King Sail’ Bunge relet 2002 150000/10 Itaquai/Tianjin 25 July/3 Aug $23.00 fio scale/30000sc – ABT -
‘TBN’ 63000/10 Mo-I-Rana/Rotterdam 5/20 July $5.95 fio 4 days sc – RogesaPublished: July 06, 2010
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Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture Report: 06/07/2010
hi.baidu.com —
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -89 2127 . … ‘Samjohn Amity’ Transbulk relet 1998 74744 dwt dely Ijmuiden 10/14 July 1/2 laden legs 1st via Baltic redel Skaw-Cape Passero $14750 daily – Swiss Marine. . … 类别：Bdi Daily Report 查看评论
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -89 2127
Rates
BCI
(Cape index)
BPI
(Panamax index)
BSI
(Supramax index)
INDEX
2468
-110
2191
-159
1923
-34
SPOT 4 TCE AVG
(USD)21880
-1132
17667
-1274
20111
-356
YESTERDAY
(USD)23012
18941
20467
YEAR AGO
(USD)76243
24515
17865
TIMECHARTER
‘Epic’ newbuilding 182000 dwt dely ex yard Odense 19/21 July trip via Narvik & Iskenderun redel Cape Passero $29000 daily – Classic
‘Ocean Duke’ 2010 180300 dwt dely ARA rge 10/20 July trip via Seven Islands redel Rotterdam $25000 daily – North China Shipping
‘Hong Jing’ 2008 82354 dwt dely aps Itaquai 4/6 July 2 laden legs redel UKC $18000 daily + $400000 bb – Windrose
‘Lake Dahlia’ 2009 78000 dwt dely Gangavaram 15/20 July trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan rge $21000 daily – Cargill
‘Tai Prosperity’ 2005 77834 dwt dely Masinloc 10/12 July trip via Indonesia redel Hong Kong $14000 daily – Oldendorff
‘Iris II’ 2004 75798 dwt -
‘Ellivita’ Louis Dreyfus relet 1999 75522 dwt dely Hirohata 11/15 July trip via NoPac redel China int sulphur $20500 daily – cnr -
‘Samjohn Amity’ Transbulk relet 1998 74744 dwt dely Ijmuiden 10/14 July 1/2 laden legs 1st via Baltic redel Skaw-Cape Passero $14750 daily – Swiss Marine
‘Seafortune’ 1996 74012 dwt dely Xiamen spot trip via Indonesia redel China $18000 daily – cnr
‘Thetis’ Bunge relet 1993 73670 dwt dely Surabaya ppt trip via West Australia redel China $21000 daily – Cosco Qingdao
‘Essex Strait’ 2010 57000 dwt dely CJK spot trip via Nopac redel Indian Ocean approx $21000 daily – cnr
‘Jin Xing’ 2007 55300 dwt dely Indonesia spot trip redel N.China intention Nickel ore approx $26000 daily – cnr
‘White Diamond’ 2008 53538 dwt dely Londonderry mid July trip via Baltic and Gulf of Aden redel India $25000 daily – WBC
‘Nantor’ 2009 53400 dwt dely Jintang spot trip via South east Asia redel Singapore-Japan $17500 daily – cnr
‘Karavados’ 2002 50992 dwt dely Surabaya 17/20 July trip via Indonesia redel India approx $23500 daily – Oldendorff
‘Sanko Royal’ 1995 42529 dwt dely Onsan 10/12 June trip via Cape of Good Hope redel UKCont intention Steel & Generals $13200 daily – STX Pan Ocean
‘Van Orchid’ 2009 28341 dwt dely Black Sea spot trip redel South-East Africa $14000 daily – MUR
PERIOD
‘Oceanis’ 2001 75211 dwt dely Far East early Sept 23/25 months trading redel worldwide $19750 daily – Sinochart
‘Naias’ 2006 73664 dwt dely Far East in d/c 24/30 Sept 23/25 months trading redel worldwide $19750 daily – J.Aron
‘Attractive’ 1985 41524 dwt dely S.Korea 8/11 July 3/5 months trading redel worldwide $17000 daily – Phoenix
ORE
‘TBN’ 160000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 21/31 July $7.70 fio scale/30000sc – Rio Tinto
‘Grand Clipper’ 1996 160000/10 Tubarao/Qingdao 14/19 July $19.50 scale/30000sc – Louis Dreyfus
‘TBN’ 160000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 21/31 July $7.70 fio scale/30000sc – Rio Tinto
‘King Sail’ Bunge relet 2002 150000/10 Itaquai/Tianjin 25 July/3 Aug $23.00 fio scale/30000sc – ABT -
‘TBN’ 63000/10 Mo-I-Rana/Rotterdam 5/20 July $5.95 fio 4 days sc – Rogesa
Published: July 06, 2010
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Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 05/07/2010
goldenglory.blog.163.com —
Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 05/07/2010. . … BDI 2216 (DOWN 64) BCI 2578 (DOWN 49) BPI 2350 (DOWN 97). … BSI 1957 (DOWN 38) BHSI 1069 (DOWN 49). … Last published BDTI 831 (DOWN 13) BCTI 809 (UP 11). .
Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 05/07/2010
BDI 2216 (DOWN 64) BCI 2578 (DOWN 49) BPI 2350 (DOWN 97)
BSI 1957 (DOWN 38) BHSI 1069 (DOWN 49)
Last published BDTI 831 (DOWN 13) BCTI 809 (UP 11)TIMECHARTER
‘Cervia’ 2010 93107 dwt dely Zhoushan 9/15 July trip via EC
Australia redel Singapore-Japan rge $17000 daily – Cargill
‘Eternal Salute’ 2008 87114 dwt -
rate is $20000 daily>
‘Star of Dubai’ 2008 83611 dwt dely Tanjung Bin 10/14 July trip
Indonesia redel Hong Kong $21250 daily – Oldendorff
‘Rosco Poplar’ 2008 82331 dwt dely CJK 12/15 July trip via NoPac int
grain redel Singapore-Japan rge $19000 daily chop trip via Dalrymple
Bay int coal dely Singapore-Japan rge $21000 daily – Oldendorff
‘Iolcos Triumph’ 1980 80170 dwt dely Jeddah 3/5 July trip via Black
Sea redel China $15000 daily – Richstone
‘Rosco Gingko’ 2005 76250 dwt dely Xingang 5/10 July trip via NoPac
redel Indonesia $16500 daily – Bogasari
‘Iris II’ 2004 75845 dwt dely Port Kelang 17/20 July trp via EC
South America redel Singapore-Japan rge $21500 daily – cnr
‘Amalia’ 2000 75100 dwt dely Qingdao 8/11 July trip via Gladstone
redel S.Korea $19500 daily – Louis Dreyfus
‘Guari Prem’ 2007 74483 dwt dely S.Korea 9/11 July trip via
Gladstone redel Continent $14000 daily – HMM
‘Atlantic’ 1996 73585 dwt dely Kaohsiung 6/11 July trip via
Newcastle redel Pakistan $17000 daily – Noble
‘Hai Lang’ 1997 71298 dwt dely Lumut 6/10 July trip via Geraldton
redel China $23000 daily – Seawin
‘Yao Hai’ 1986 69497 dwt dely CJK 2/5 July trip via Indonesia redel
Malaysia $10000 daily – Grand China Shipping
‘Mass Wits’ 1988 69355 dwt dely aps Recalada 5/10 July trip redel
Singapore-Japan rge $25000 daily + $500000 bb – Sinochart
‘Major’ 2009 58000 dwt dely North China spot trip via South east
Asia redel China intention Nickel ore approx $17500 daily – Tongli
‘Sheng Xing Hai’ 2009 57291 dwt -
02/07 to Italian charterers but not D’Amico>
‘Cos Prosperity’ 2006 55500 dwt dely Inchon spot trip via Indonesia
redel EC India $16000 daily – Oldendorff
‘Star Sea Cosmos’ 2000 48983 dwt dely dop Port Kelang 9/11 July trip
via Indonesia redel India $23000 daily – cnr
‘Ljubljana’ 1997 42717 dwt dely Durban early July trip via East
coast south America redel Singapore-Japan approx $21000 daily – SW
Shipping
‘Capetan Michalis’ 1981 29466 dwt dely Nueva Palmira 10/12 July
Plate/Brazil coastwise trading $14500 daily – PancoastPERIOD
‘Vogerunner’ Cobelfret relet 2008 176838 dwt dely Cape Passero 15/20
July balance of period 5 Dec/5 Feb 2011 redel worldwide $32750 daily -
CTC
‘Dione’ 2001 75172 dwt dely Worldwide in d/c ely Sept 22/26 months
trading redel worldwide $20500 daily – Louis Dreyfus -
week>ORE
‘TBN’ 170000/10 Port Hedland/Qingdao 21/30 July $8.20 fio
scale/30000sc – BHP Billiton
‘Tianshunhai’ 2000 170000/10 Port Hedland/Qingdao 16/21 July $8.45 fio
scale/30000sc – BHP Billiton -
‘Iron Fortune’ 2005 160000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 17/20 July $8.15 fio
scale/30000sc – Rio Tinto
‘Welmountain’ 1989 160000/10 Itaquai/Qingdao 15/20 July $22.50 fio
scale/30000sc – Chinese chrtr
‘TBN’ 160000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 20/30 July $8.05 fio scale/30000sc – Rio TintoGRAIN
‘TBN’ / -
Published: July 06, 2010
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Dry Bulk
www.tonmiletrader.com —
. Baltic Indices. … BDI 2127 down 89. … A week ago, Panamax rates were slightly higher than Capesize rates. … Cape: 21880 down 1132 22500 down 500. … PM: 17667 down 1274 17500 down 250. … SM: 20111 down 356 17000 down 250.
Baltic Indices
BDI 2127 down 89
BCI 2468 dwon 110
BPI 2191 down 159
BSI 1923 down 34
BHSI 1042 down 27Platou Markets: Baosteel predicts second half dip on declining demand from automakers as Chinese car sales growth slows in June. Baosteel, China’s second largest steel maker said the market has turned weaker and reported of declining demand from automakers, Bloomberg reports. Separately, China’s passenger vehicle sales growth slowed in June compared to the previous month. June sales grew 10.9% y/y against 34% growth in April and 25% in May. According to China Economic Review, China had previously halved the purchase tax on cars last year but has since been reintroduced at 7.5%.
Commodore Research: In our last report, we discussed the recent lull in spot and period chartering activity but suggested that Capesize rates could soon find support. Capesize rates held relatively steady during much of last week with spot chartering activity increasing on the strength of moderate Chinese iron ore demand and robust Asian thermal coal demand. Despite a decline in freight rates for all vessel classes – last week’s increase in total spot chartering activity was encouraging. Dry bulk cargo demand has increased from the previous week with global grain demand remaining firm, and Chinese iron ore and Asian thermal coal demand increasing. Panamax freight rates still managed to come under significant pressure, primarily due to declining port congestion and the relative imbalance in the Capesize/Panamax ratio. A week ago, Panamax rates were slightly higher than Capesize rates. This imbalance has begun to correct itself, although Supramax rates are now higher than Panamax rates.
Dry FFAs – fair volume
Spot Q3 FFA
Cape: 21880 down 1132 22500 down 500
PM: 17667 down 1274 17500 down 250
SM: 20111 down 356 17000 down 250Published: July 06, 2010
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No Crash Today
www.urbansurvival.com —
Not that this is investment advice –it’s not. … while I apply ViceGrips to my forearm, I seem to recall that the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which is a good proxy of real cargo demand is still hovering around 2004 levels….
In fact, quite the opposite – a fine running of the shorts and violent rally seems in the cards. Although we went into a ‘crash window’ around here on June 21st, as soon as it became obvious that we were into a period labeled on the chart at the bottom of this page as P3 (…as in ‘primary wave three down from the October 2007 highs’), the odds of a crash today seem relatively low. Not that this is investment advice –it’s not. Nor is it a course in microbiology or chemical engineering. Just the ongoing adventures of how I try to squeeze as much possible out of our meager personal trading account.
The first really useful observation as the sun rises over the coffee is that holidays are working backwards now. By this I mean to contrast current behavior with holiday periods of say, 10-12-years ago. Back then, when the country was not under attack by the PowersThatBe (or their minion banksters and other terrorists) it was common to see markets firm ahead of holidays. Woo-hoo! Party on! That kind of thing.
No more. Nowadays, we see just about the opposite. Along comes a holiday prequel week (like last week, for example) and we see the Dow hitting 10,246.82 a week ago Monday on an intraday basis, and stoop to a low of 9,686.26 on Friday; a decline of more than 5% for the week and adding up to nearly 10% for the two weeks ending last Friday. Almost like pre-Holiday anxiety.
That leaves us with a rally today (and likely into tomorrow) which an amateur Elliott Wave student, who knows nothing about what they are doing – like me – penciling out what’s going on right in here.
Since the decline of P3 (movement i or a) was a decline of 11,204.28 down to 9,8686.48, we notice that’s a decline of 1,517.8 points.
Since the bounce normally associated with ‘i’ or ‘a’ moves is often followed by a 33% or 38.2% to 80% retracement, with a 50% retracement being about ‘normal’ we can now sit back (with most of our short positions cleared last week) and wait for the manic buying and window dressing that makes up ‘ii’ or ‘b’ to take place over the next several days.
A move up over a couple of days could be as little as my favorite (.382 or 1/Golden Mean) to maybe 50% or more, I’d expect at least 579 points from last Friday’s low. Maybe somewhere around 10,448.
Since I am a wild-eyed gambler, I might buy some inexpensive index call options for this cycle with a one week (or shorter) timeline in mind, or I may just sit back and wait for the Dow to peek over 10,300 or so, and then load the boat on shorts because when P3 little ‘iii’ of ‘c’ gets here somewhere between the 12th and the 21st arrives, it should give me enough extra dough in the bank to keep the wolf away from the door for another few weeks.
I outlined some additional – longer term – expectation for subscribers to www.peoplenomics.com this weekend, not as financial advice but rather as spectators “Watchin’ the Depression” – a favorite song around here sung to the same melody as “Watchin’ the Detectives“.
I already blew out of all short positions in today’s preopen and will sit back until settlement time (Thursday) and then load up on shorts when they may be considerably cheaper. As of this morning, my portfolio is only up a lousy 25.9% for the year but I aim to improve on that considerably over the summer, with any luck. I plan on dart sharpening out in the shop this morning.
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A couple of seasonal factors to keep in mind here: One is that we just went through the end of Q2 for a lot of fundies and hedgies, which means they sold out well ahead of the end of quarter, and as they come roaring back into the market, that’s likely to cause some upward motion.
Along with that, happy-talk headlines like “Bargain-hunting lifts world markets” may not be so much bargain hunting as fundies and hedgies moving in briefly in with HF trading tools to buy low and then sell high later in the week. Shearing the sheep every time they get ahead a bit, is another way to look at it.
Fundamentally, none of the major news items have changed much since we started the three-day weekend. It’s just that with markets open, there’s a little more sense of ’security’ about investing in what are very strained times for the global populace. Until about next Monday, or so, when emotional building tensions should give way to a saw-tooth series of release events over the summer which may provide some dandy trading opportunities to the aware investor.
Not like I’m the only one with a dire outlook. CNBC headlined Monday “Dow Repeats Great Depression Pattern: Charts“. If you’re not attached to up or down outcomes, it should be easy enough to make money either way – if you’re right, that is….
March to War
Which gets us to the New Moon jitters which come up around the 11th. Word that “Iranian planes are getting fuel” foreign ministry” should not as a surprise to Israel which has been nervously watching their nuclear program with fears it will (or is already) weaponized.
That I keep pointing out that the US has – in effect – declared war on Iran with president Obama’s declaration of unilateral additional sanctions against Iran after the UN declined to ‘go cowboy’ suggests that Obama is more of a Bush III than I previously thought.
True, Obama stresses the “waiver in Iran sanctions statement” which gives him (IMHO) way too much latitude to goad and tease Iran into full-out war, but curiously, no one in Washington called to ask my thoughts.
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Making the case for a ’sooner war’ we see that “Netanyahu heads to Washington in effort to mend U.S. ties” as a headline, or is he coming to call in some plays under the new US sanctions? Depends on who you read, and how suspicious you are, I suppose.
Over next weekend don’t forget we have a changing of the naval units in the region, which could be a fine time to hold a war, along with next weekend’s eclipse and dark of the moon.
Fidel Castro lately has been writing very grimly about what’s ahead:
Given a choice of future predictors, Fidel is way down the list, no doubt. Still, curious that he’s writing about developing world affairs with a very unhappy ending…
Speaking of Wars
Might want to mention that next weekend’s “Total Eclipse Sunday July 11 will fall on Easter Island” and we’ve heard rumors about the net that former president Clinton and many others among the PTB’s will be on cruise ships in that general area.
While it may be instructive to look at who among the PTB were also on hand at the Millennium celebrations at the Great Pyramids of Giza at 1999 rolled over into 2000, the real design pattern to be aware of is how ritual figures so prominently into the operations of the PTB.
Ritual, I’m sure you’re aware also figures heavily into war/human sacrifice, which is why militaries are forever putting occult symbols like stars circles, and modified crosses on their units, believing them to give certain powers and/or meaning to the sacrifices they extract.
About the only question for the aware observer might be “How close temporally will the eclipse ritual’ be to ‘the war sacrifice ritual’, or will they be concurrent?
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Then we expect to see a rush of the PTB to their gathering at a certain grove in Northern California for a run of further rituals this month. Bring your own owl.
Terra Bites
All boring stuff so far, and no doubt known to you already, so we might as well flip on to the Terra Bites portion of the Tuesday Morning Reality Check.
Lemme see here: No, the BP spill didn’t get turned off this weekend. As a result, we’re now reading reports of tar balls being picked up on the Texas Gulf Coast, meaning every state touching the Gulf has been greased.
BP’s reported move not to issue new shares to pay for cleanup has resulted in a little bump to its share prices while they seek outside capital to help pay for the mess. Being a throwback, I guess I’d wait until the oil is actually turned off before throwing dough into what might be a bottomless/abiotic pit, but that maybe is why I don’t run a sovereign wealth fund, maybe?
One reader suggests that “Regarding the “secrets revealed” which you have mentioned from time to time, I believe that if oil turns out to be accepted as abiotic, this would be a huge secret revealed.” Oh, you mean about how the global energy (and most other) crisis is contrived in order to exploit and economic niche? Tisk, tisk. Perish the thought!…how could capitalism be so deceiving, LOL….
Say, you don’t think this figures into the Saudis turning off exploration to ’save the wealth of the Kingdom” do you? Naw…..tell me it ain’t so!
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A couple of quite predictable stories (linguistically) have arrived more or less on schedule. We’re seeing a zillion headlines about how government should consider using a nuclear explosion to close the well down. After a lot of anguishing over such things, the rickety time machine figures this will not take place, which means a total of 19-months run until a large earthquake finally seals it in late 2011. Maybe part of earth-change/crustal shift? We should get a little better view when Clif has time to run out the long term values and issue what may be a final long-term forecast before we’re into the real chaos of summer.
Another reader asks:
“So why are not more people taking the Deepwater Horizon date as an indicator of terrorism?
OK bombing april 19 (when I heard about the ok bombing on the radio I instantly knew it was in retribution for Waco)
Please refer to the previous story on rituals, go worship some wild life for a few hours, and everything oughta become clear. Or it’s all a coincidence.
When You’re Hot
Folks in New York (both state and city) are gearing up for another cooker today as temps ar headed into the upper 90’s some places. Elsewhere, there’s talk of temps running into the triple digits in much of the East this week along with the usual admonitions about heat stroke, drinking plenty of beer…ooops, I mean liquids and such.
A few readers have suggested that this heat wave has something to do with global warming. However, around this part of practical East Texas there’s another name for the phenomena: Summer.
Terror in Vegas
The Las Vegas Sun has a dandy report on how not to run a terrorism drill. Keystone cops kind of thing, by the sound of it.
You don’t read about a mock terrorist played by an off-duty cop in Texas,. I wouldn’t have given the guy three-minutes around these part. Damn dangerous exercise.
ViceGrips and Cow Pies Department
Greece’s government claimed to have cut their deficit by 40% during the first half of the year, says a BBC report. I’m guessing this will mean even more participation in Greece’s general strike this Thursday. Timing mark for a new decline in markets, maybe?
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Also out of the BBC is the report of container shortages for shipping goods about. while I apply ViceGrips to my forearm, I seem to recall that the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which is a good proxy of real cargo demand is still hovering around 2004 levels…
The Weak Ahead
After the rally rush expected today, it’s a really boring week ahead in terms of market data. Except for Thursday afternoon when the Fed issues the consumer debt report (disguised as Consumer Credit G.19). Although we’ve seen a lot of hype about store sales and such, the Consumer Debt report is the simplest measure of what’s really going on in the debt-laden economy this is.
Simply put: If people are confident about the future to the extent that they will take on more debt, then that should reassure Wall Street. On th3e other hand, with M3 (reconstructed over at Trader Bart’s site) declining at a 10% annualized rate (or thereabouts) the term Deflationary Depression keeps coming to mind.
So I fully expect Thursday’s Consumer Debt report to show a continued deterioration of fundamental underpinnings which makes playing the short side personally attractive to me. Rallies like this week’s early goings ought to be a fine time to reload the boat on the short side.
Maybe.
Published: July 06, 2010
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CHINA – still growing but at slowing pace
www.tonmiletrader.com —
As construction is an important part of manufacturing, dry bulk demand could slow further down in coming months, as if the last month haven’t brought along enough downturn for the BDI, recording
China is still growing but at slowing pace according to latest PMI indices, which suggest a cooling of the manufacturing sector is ongoing but the sector as such is still expanding. This development, should it be permanent, is on course to have repercussions into the demand for shipping tonnage going in and out of China.
China Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) released on 1 July by HSBC and Markit Economics fell to 50.4 in June, from 52.7 in May. Meanwhile a government PMI showed a slowdown to 52.1, from 53.9, both of them are indicating that manufacturing grew, but at a slower pace as compared to the month before. Several key sub-indices from the Markit survey fell below 50 (a reading above 50 indicates growth), including output, new orders, new export orders, and both input and output prices. Prices coming down are reducing the overall inflation pressure on the economy and thereby the risk of overheating is coming a bit off.
The indices were expected to drop as policies to curb lending to the red-hot property market continue to impact manufacturing negatively coupled with the European debt crisis spreading bad sentiment on business and bringing worries as to the sustainability of European recovery.
Shipping analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand says: “a more modest rate of growth in this leading indicator might affect global shipping sentiment and spread worries that China may be less of a driver in coming months than what we’ve been used to following the strong stimulus-driven recovery in China”.
Source: BIMCO, CFLP, HSBC/Markit
Repercussions on shipping:
Slowing growth in the manufacturing sector is generally bad news for dry bulk, tankers and container shipping segments. As construction is an important part of manufacturing, dry bulk demand could slow further down in coming months, as if the last month haven’t brought along enough downturn for the BDI, recording year-low at 2,280 on 2 July, with Capesize segment being mainly responsible for the drop.In the container shipping industry a lot of tonnage has been reactivated on the back of stronger than expected demand in first half of 2010. Just last week AXS reported that the idle capacity had dropped from 1.51 million TEU at 1 January to 0.35 million TEU by end June. This is seen as largely due to the higher-than expected recovery in demand in the first half of the year and to the impact of extra slow steaming (ESS), which has absorbed an additional 0.32 million TEU in 6 months. But with new export orders in contraction and the peak of the inventory cycle behind us – a resumed pressure on the rates could develop as the supply-side seems to grow more than the demand-side in coming months.
Particular focus on exports:
A slower growth of new export orders in recent months in part reflects a peaking in global trade flows, which is in turn being driven by the inventory cycle. While still supportive of growth, the temporary stimulus to manufacturing created by the restocking of factories has shown signs of fading in recent months.On a global basis PMI data also illustrate how the slowing in exports has been led by China and other Asian export-oriented emerging economies. Export growth from China slowed for the fourth consecutive month in June to the weakest in 14 months, with an index reading of close to 48 (below 50 being indication of contraction).
Following the release of data, Chinese Statistical Bureau stated that China’s export outlook is “grim” as shipments may be hurt by a slowing world recovery, rising trade frictions, Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and cuts to export tax rebates.
The turnaround in trade since the depths of the global recession has been nothing short of extraordinary. This resurgence has been a key feature of the recovery, but signs are emerging that expansion of international trade has peaked and is now slowing.
“The shipping industry in general, has benefitted a lot from China’s swift recovery. China has been recovering tremendously fast and is currently growing it’s GDP by more than 10% on an annual basis. To prevent the economy from overheating the government has taken some measures targeting a stable and sustainable expansion of the economy. The slowdown of the manufacturing PMI signals this. However, the manufacturing sector must continue to expand if China is going to remain the big driver for shipping as well as for the world economy away from a looming double-dip” adds Peter Sand.
Note that: other important indicators for world economy and the shipping industry will be published in coming days e.g.: Tuesday US: ISM Service, Thursday EU: ECB Monetary policy (interest rate) and next Monday: Chinese import and export figures. BIMCO Shipping analysis will follow up on these numbers- so stay tuned.
China Manufacturing PMI is One-to-watch-out-for. Read more about this here: https://www.bimco.org/Members/Reports/Shipping_Market_Analysis/2010/05/17_One-to-watch-out-for.aspx
BIMCO contact – Shipping Analyst: Peter Sand PS@BIMCO.ORG +45 4436 6800
Published: July 06, 2010
